We can forget COVID-19, it's not a cause for concern, say health experts, as they explain the reason behind the surge in India

New Delhi: COVID-19 is becoming less severe over time, but occasional increases in cases are expected as the virus becomes endemic and continues to change, scientists say.

They reassure the public that there is no major cause for alarm. The experts addressed concerns about the rising number of cases in different parts of India.

They believe it is due to weakening immunity combined with seasonal factors, such as extreme temperatures that cause people to stay indoors in air-conditioned environments. They emphasised the need for caution, especially for those who are more vulnerable.

Covid Becoming Milder Every Passing Year: Expert

"With every passing year, COVID-19 is causing milder infections. It is (now) just another respiratory illness and less dangerous than flu. We can forget COVID-19 as a special case. It is not a cause of concern," said Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya, a global health expert.

Anurag Agarwal from Ashoka University added, "All the subvariants are similar, having a lower virulence but high infectivity. While highly susceptible people can still get severe disease, the vast majority don't, especially those who have had prior infections or vaccines."

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of COVID-19 as a public health emergency in May 2023. Health experts now describe the disease as seasonal, endemic, or restricted to certain regions.

As of June 6, there were over 5,300 active cases in India, with nearly 500 new cases reported in the last 24 hours. More than 4,700 people have recovered. Since January, 55 deaths have been reported, mainly among individuals with pre-existing conditions, according to the Union Health Ministry.

Lahariya advised that "People with pre-existing illnesses and those older than 65 should follow standard precautions, as they would against any other respiratory infection -- not just for COVID-19."

Kerala is the most affected state with over 1,600 cases, followed by Gujarat, West Bengal, Delhi, and Maharashtra, according to ministry data.

Surge in India part of broader trend

The increase in cases in India is part of a broader trend in Southeast Asia, including Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Hong Kong.

Wastewater surveillance by the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research-National Chemical Laboratory (NCL) has detected the presence of the virus in samples from sewage treatment plants in Pune, according to the Times of India.

Genome sequencing of samples from western and southern India has shown links to Omicron subvariants LF.7, XFG, JN.1, and NB.1.8.1. Rajiv Behl, Director General of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), said earlier this week that the cases are not severe and there is no need to worry.

The WHO has classified LF.7 and NB.1.8.1 as 'variants under monitoring' (VUM). JN.1 has been circulating in India since November 2023.

Immunologist Satyajit Rath explained that the subvariants are likely better at binding to human cells, despite existing antibodies.

"However, the important issue here is not their infectivity, but their tendency to cause severe disease, or 'virulence'," Rath said.

'Ups and downs expected because the virus is endemic'

Health experts said that ups and downs in infections are expected because the virus is now endemic and constantly evolving.

Agarwal stated, "People need not worry themselves until they are informed of a new 'variant of concern'. VUM is not relevant to the public, but only to public health authorities."

Lahariya advised the public to get information from reliable sources and avoid sharing unverified messages. Rath suggested monitoring the virulence of new strains.

Lahariya emphasised that "National and state governments in India should keep a watch on cases, monitor the trends in new cases and share data widely. The linkage between infections and clinical outcomes should be explored to understand the clinical features of the variants in circulation."

Rath highlighted the need to address systemic issues in public health systems and healthcare facilities.

Rath questioned, "Are we making next-generation Covid vaccines at all? Are we making them available widely and affordably? Are we even carefully tracking evidence to see how well or poorly the current vaccine-induced immunity functions against emerging strains?"

He added, "And if not, we are throwing poor communities onto their own resources even for taking such simple precautions, and that is a systemic problem."