Govt expects third Covid wave between Aug, Nov

Gandhinagar: Although it is difficult to predict a pandemic wave, the Gujarat government is bracing to face a possible third wave of Covid-19 cases between August and November, when a number of festivals are held.

Beginning with Rakshabandhan in August, a number of festivals such as Janmashtami, Navratri and Diwali will follow at quick intervals after the monsoon season. With a large number of people moving about during these festivals, the government expects a spike in Covid-19 cases during this period.

A key source engaged in the planning of the government response said, “The government’s task force and experts are attempting to predict the likely third wave of the pandemic, which is very difficult to do. But top officials have opined that normally in Gujarat during festivals, crowding begins, so the coming festival season could cause a third wave of the pandemic.”

Officials said that religious and social gatherings and fairs across Gujarat happen during the month of ‘Shravan’ (around August). “The state government is likely to ban all such events. Thereafter, the Navratri festival will take place and the government will, in most probability, put some restrictions on the Navratri festival in October as well,” the source said.

“The government will face another challenge in the Diwali and New Year festivals in November, but it aims to vaccinate as many people as possible by November if vaccine doses are available in adequate quantities,” the source said.

In the first wave in November last year, the per day peak of cases was 1,607 while in the second wave in April, the peak was 14,605 on April 30, almost nine times the number of cases registered in the first peak.

Although nobody in the government is spelling out an estimate of daily cases likely at the peak of the third wave, guestimates put the number at three to five times the number of cases at the peak of the second wave. Some experts say that if mass vaccination is achieved before the third wave, the peak could be much lower than in the second wave.