Delta deaths 11 times more than Omicron toll in Gujarat

AHMEDABAD: The third wave of Covid pandemic in Gujarat seems to be ebbing away without inflicting as much lethal damage as the second wave did. The analysis so far indicates that while the third wave has been steeper than the second, it has also been less deadly. Experts attribute this to a less severe Omicron variant — which now accounts for a majority of the cases in Gujarat — and the fact that over 85% eligible population in the state had been fully vaccinated before the wave began.

A comparison of 31 days of January 2022 with 31 days of the peak of the second wave — between April 16 and May 16 in 2021 — indicates that the second wave recorded 15% more cases and 11 times higher deaths. The test positivity rate (TPR), estimated based on a few official sources, also indicates that it was around 13.2% compared to 11.8% recorded in the third wave primarily due to fewer tests last year.

Besides, it took 30 days for Gujarat in 2022 to bring back the cases to the 4,500-range. In terms of the peak, the second wave’s highest number of cases was recorded on April 30 at 14,605; it had doubled in 16 days. In the third wave, however, it took just three days for the cases to double -- from 12,753 on January 17, the state went to 24,485 cases on January 20, the highest. The biggest difference, however, is seen in mortality — against 355 deaths in January at the average of 11.5 daily deaths, April-May recorded 4,045 deaths at the average of 130.5. The mortality rate in the third wave is 0.1% whereas in the second wave it was 1.1%.