Why TN with far smaller popn will get more doses than Bihar

Atul Thakur & Rema Nagarajan

As India prepares for mass vaccination against Covid once approvals come through, states with the most people in the 50-plus age group — Bengal figures in the top 3 on this list — and with co-morbidities such as diabetes and hypertension are expected to get larger allocations (besides frontline healthcare workers, essential staff, and police and defence personnel). So Tamil Nadu should receive more doses of the vaccine than Bihar, Madhya Pradesh or Rajasthan despite being less populous.

Bihar’s projected population of 12.3 crore is about 60% larger than TN’s 7.6 crore, but only 1.8 crore of its people are 50 years and above, compared with the latter’s 2 crore.

States with younger populations, such as Bihar, also have a smaller proportion of people affected by co-morbidities. In Kerala, almost 30% of the population — roughly 1 crore people — are aged over 50 with a high prevalence of diabetes and hypertension, making it the state with the highest percentage of people in the priority category.

Kerala tops list by percentage of popn needing vaccination
New Delhi: The government is preparing to vaccinate about 19.5% of the population making up the 50-plus age group. This will mean about 26.5 crore people, besides the 1crore health staff and 4 crore diabetics in the below-50 age group.

The distribution of Covid vaccines will, therefore, be weighted towards states with older populations. However, Uttar Pradesh, where only 15% of the people are aged over 50, will still get the largest share of vaccines due to the sheer size of its population.

Maharashtra, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, in that order, are next in terms of their 50-plus population. However, Kerala tops the list of states by the percentage of population needing vaccination.

Recently released data from the National Family Health Survey of 2019-20 for 17 states and 5 union territories shows Kerala has the highest proportion of people with diabetes (25.3%) and hypertension (13.7%).

While 3.6 crore people are eligible for priority vaccination in UP, Maharashtra follows with 22% of its population, or 2.7 crore people, over the age of 50 years. It also has a high proportion of persons with diabetes and hypertension, which would add to the numbers who need to be vaccinated.

As the severity of Covid increases with co-morbidities like hypertension and diabetes, the Centre has decided to vaccinate even those below 50 years who suffer from these conditions. A recently published paper based on NFHS 2015-16 data estimates that about 6.5% of adults below 50 years have diabetes.

As the new National Family Health Survey data for major states like UP, MP, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, Punjab, Haryana and Chhattisgarh is yet to be released, the numbers of diabetics and hypertensives there is not known.