US expert foresees bird flu as next pandemic threat

New Delhi: Former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) director Robert Redfield has suggested that 'bird flu' could potentially be the next pandemic. This statement follows a recent announcement by the World Health Organisation (WHO) about the first human death from bird flu in Mexico. Moreover, the virus has been detected in cattle across the United States.

"I really do think it's very likely that we will, at some time, it's not a question of if, it's more of a question of when we will have a bird flu pandemic," Redfield told US-based TV network NewsNation on Friday. The former CDC director further noted that the mortality rate from bird flu is likely to be much higher compared to Covid-19.

Redfield stated that while the mortality rate for Covid-19 was 0.6 percent, the mortality rate for bird flu could likely range from 25 to 50 percent.

Last month, US officials reported the country's third human case of bird flu linked to the current outbreak of the virus in dairy cattle. Globally, doctors have detected 15 human infections caused by the bird flu strain H5N1.

While there is not yet evidence of the virus spreading between humans, Redfield explained that five specific amino acids must be present for bird flu to gain the ability to bind to human receptors and subsequently spread from person to person, similar to Covid-19.

"Once the virus gains the ability to attach to the human receptor and then go human to human, that's when you're going to have the pandemic. I think it's just a matter of time," he added.

It's unknown how long it will take for the five amino acids to change, but Redfield expressed concern because the virus is being detected in cattle herds across the US.

"I know exactly what amino acids I have to change because in 2012, against my recommendation, the scientists that did these experiments published them. So, the recipe for how to make bird flu highly infectious for humans is already out there," he said.

In recent years, the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus has spread to infect more than 50 animal species, including dairy cattle in the United States as of March.

Unlike in Europe, American farmers are allowed to feed cattle ground-up chicken waste, which some scientists believe may be a risk factor for bird flu. However, the feed industry has challenged this claim, and US authorities believe wild birds are responsible for infecting cows.