UN: Limiting warming to 1.5°C possible, will save 420m people

Highlights

• The report of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released at Incheon in South Korea on Monday, clearly shows how half a degree of warming makes a big difference.
• In fact, limiting warming to 1.5 degree celsius rather than 2 degree celsius could result in 420 million fewer people being exposed to severe heat waves, says the report.

NEW DELHI: The special report on global warming by a UN body has set the tone for the upcoming climate conference in Poland where countries will now have to make efforts to align their pledges with the 1.5-degree celsius goal - a more stringent target than the existing agreement to limit average temperature rise within 2 degree celsius by 2100.

The report of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released at Incheon in South Korea on Monday, clearly shows how half a degree of warming makes a big difference, adversely impacting global population and overall ecosystem through intense heat waves, sea level rise, melting of Arctic, erratic rainfall, reduction of farm yield and vanishing of living species.

In fact, limiting warming to 1.5 degree celsius rather than 2 degree celsius could result in 420 million fewer people being exposed to severe heat waves, says the report.

The report claims it’s possible to meet the new warming target, provided nations together take “rapid and far reaching” transitions over next 10 to 20 years in land use, energy, industry, buildings, transport and cities to cut emissions and reach ‘net zero’ around 2050 -- 25 years earlier than what they planned under the earlier 2-degree goal.

“India and many other countries are already facing impact of 1 degree celsius of global warming. It’s therefore important for all the nations to make efforts towards limiting the warming. It’s scientifically possible to do that. India has already taken several actions in the direction,” the ministry of earth sciences secretary M Rajeevan told TOI.

The report says the world will need an annual average investment of 2.4 trillion dollars between 2016 and 2035 (which is 2.5% of present world GDP) in energy system alone to limit the global warming to 1.5 degree celsius.

Interestingly, it also talks about changes in lifestyles to enhance mitigation and adaptation options - the point India has consistently been flagging after getting it inserted in the preamble of the Paris Agreement.

“The new report from the IPCC has served as a final warning that we must get our act together -- now and quickly,” said Sunita Narain, director general of the Centre for Science Environment (CSE) while asking the global communities to build a coalition to support the massive transformation required to achieve the 1.5-degree target.

The IPCC’s report was accepted by all countries, including India. Though the United States, which moved to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, too accepted the report, it has not endorsed it.

“By refusing to endorse the findings of the IPCC’s 1.5 degree celsius report, the US has again given a clear signal that it would continue with its climate regressive agenda, which includes obstructing the work of the UNFCCC and promoting fossil fuels like coal and gas,” said Chandra Bhushan, deputy DG of the CSE.

Since the report examines pathways available to limit warming to 1.5 degree celsius and what it would take to achieve them and what the consequences could be, it will be a key scientific input into the Katowice Climate Change Conference (COP24) in Poland in December, when governments review the Paris Agreement to tackle climate change.

The Paris Agreement, adopted by 195 nations at COP21 in December 2015, included the aim of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change by “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degree celsius above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degree celsius above pre -industrial levels.” The reference period 1850-1900 is used to approximate pre-industrial levels.

The governments have set a deadline for themselves to finalise the agreement’s implementation guidelines at COP24 in Katowice (Poland). These guidelines will enable each country to act and contribute towards curbing emissions.

“In this sense, a successful outcome in Katowice will be a first and most crucial step towards achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees and pursuing efforts towards 1.5 degree celsius,” said the UNFCCC in a statement.