Respiratory ailment cases may be past the peak in Kolkata: Experts

Kolkata: Hospitals across the city have started noticing a slight dip in ARI (acute respiratory infection) cases, which, experts say, could be an indication that it's past the peak. But doctors said it could take another fortnight for the pressure on hospitals, especially the paediatric intensive care units (PICU), to start easing out. Also, some more deaths are expected during this period as many kids with severe cases of infection, including adenovirus, are battling the infection.

Cases of adenovirus and other ARIs started surfacing by December beginning when the mercury started to dip. By mid-January, the numbers exploded and private and government hospitals started running out of PICU beds. Most PICU beds now still remain occupied as doctors said it would take some more days for the pressure to come down.

"Number of admission of kids coming with ARI has started dipping, along with the count in the OPD. We believe we are past the peak. As the mercury rises, we should see a significant dip in the next 10 days to 15 days," said associate professor of paediatrics, Dibyendu Raychaudhuri, of Medical College Hospital Kolkata (MCHK).

Paediatric intensivist Prabhas Prasun Giri of Institute of Child Health (ICH) Kolkata said it would take about two weeks for the impact of the declining trend to reflect on PICU. "The turnaround time in PICU for kids with severe adenovirus is between 10 and 15 days on an average. Therefore, the downtrend in cases will not be reflected on PICU immediately. Another concern, however, is that some kids have started returning with post infection bronchiolitis obliterans," said Giri.

Even as the pressure at Dr BC Roy Post Graduate Institute of Paediatric Sciences continues, sources at MCHK said the pressure on beds has started easing. "At OPD, we are observing that kids are now coming in mainly for prolonged fever and cough," said Mihir Sarkar, professor of paediatrics at MCHK.

Sumon Poddar, associate professor at ICH, expects some stray cases to continue till March-end and April-beginning. "Crisis for PICU beds is still a reality. But hopefully, there should be some respite in a couple of weeks," said paediatrician Sumita Saha of Fortis Hospital Anandapur.