Mumbai: Not just deaths, cases among elderly dipping too, says officials

In January and February this year, before Covid vaccination started, senior citizens accounted for 76% and 84% of the deaths, respectively, shows data collated by TOI from civic reports. In March too, their proportion in deaths was 80%.

However, in April and May, despite deaths rising exponentially to 1,475 and 1,581 (May 26), respectively, fatalities in this age group dipped. Nearly 5 lakh senior citizens got vaccinated in March, around 4 lakh in April and a little over 2 lakh in May.

But as the most vulnerable age group saw some respite, deaths rose among the lower age brackets. Interestingly, around 48% in the 45-59 age group have got one shot while just 8% are fully vaccinated. Among those under 40, the share of deaths has risen from 3.4% in January to 7% in May. Less than 2% under 44 have got one shot.

“If 77% (of elderly) have taken the first dose and there has been a decline in deaths, it’s worth speculating that vaccination may have played its part, but more detailed studies would be needed to make the correlation,” said immunologist Dr Vineeta Bal from the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), Pune. A clearer picture on the impact of vaccination would emerge once the majority of the population was vaccinated, she said, adding there have been general observations that deaths in the elderly have dropped even with a single dose.

Civic officials pointed out that not just deaths, even the share of cases among the elderly is down. “It’s an encouraging sign, but vaccination alone may not have brought down the deaths. We have really pushed people in home isolation to move to hospitals on time or even those in private hospitals to be referred to BMC tertiary centres without delay,” said additional municipal commissioner Suresh Kakani.

The second Covid wave has indeed hit the young harder, said infectious disease expert Dr Vasant Nagvekar, as ICUs had a good share of 30, 40 and 50-year-olds. According to Dr Deepa Shriyan, dean of the Dahisar jumbo Covid centre, “The elderly who bore the brunt in the first wave didn’t delay coming to hospitals, but many younger people did, which combined with low vaccination coverage could have made them more susceptible.”

Vaccination will now be a crucial yardstick to measure susceptibility in future surges, said Dr Om Srivastava, infectious disease specialist. “Mumbai must compare notes with vaccination coverage and deaths in other districts. We may know the real impact of vaccination by September to November.”