Kerala model put to test as Aug active cases up 116%

Preetu.Nair

Kochi: It is testing times for Kerala and its once-lauded model of Covid-19 control, with the state witnessing a 116% jump in active cases in August. Its 30-day moving growth rate (MGR) for positivity is twice the national average while for active cases and mortality it is four times the national average.

The number of active cases in the state has gone up from 10,862 on August 1 to 23,488 on August 31, the biggest spike in 30 days since the first confirmed case on January 30. The 30-day MGR for positivity in Kerala is just behind Punjab which has the highest MGR of 122%. The 30-day MGR for positivity in India was 64% in August. Kerala had the highest 30-day MGR in mortality in August at 163% compared to 39% in Maharashtra, 48% in Tamil Nadu and 77% in Karnataka. The 30-day MGR in mortality in India is 46%.

“The 30-day MGR of Kerala in terms of positivity, active cases and mortality have shot up, indicating that the strategy adopted by the state has had limited impact,” said Mysore Sanjeev, convenor, Project Jeevan Raksha, a PPP initiative.

There is a growing consensus among medical practitioners that it is time to increase random testing. “The focus of the health department is on controlling mortality and morbidity. Though the death rate has increased. A huge increase in active cases with shorter doubling periods mean that our healthcare machinery will be overwhelmed soon. This will be catastrophic,” said Dr Gopikumar P, secretary, IMA, Kerala chapter.

Full report on www.toi.in