In just two days, fatality rate in Mumbai jumps from 4 per cent to 6.5 per cent

MUMBAI: With seven deaths in the state on Monday, Maharashtra’s Covid-19 toll rose to 52, of which Mumbai accounted for 34. Worryingly, it translated into a fatality rate of 6% for the state, double that of the national 3%, and an even higher 6.5% for Mumbai.

The fatality rate of Mumbai has risen sharply, up from 4% on Saturday (April 4). All seven deaths on Monday were also reported from the Mumbai region—four from Mumbai and one each from Vasai-Virar, Kalyan and Thane. Till March 31, the state had recorded 300 cases and 10 deaths, meaning a death rate of 3%.

Maharashtra now accounts for over 40% of all Covid-19 deaths in the country. Dr Anup Kumar, the commissioner of the National Health Mission, said Maharashtra is testing more than many other states. “Also, we have seen most casualties among people with underlying health conditions. However, we have formed a team that has started gathering data on all deaths from across the state. We will study that,” he said.

On Monday, 120 fresh Covid-19 cases were reported in the state, taking its tally to 868. Mumbai’s tally crossed 500, reaching 526 as the city reported 57 new cases. In all, 70 people have been discharged so far. In Pune, with most of the 34 new cases being reported from the congested ‘peths’, the state sealed them from midnight.

73% deaths in state of men, 87% had med history: Study

An analysis of the Covid-19 deaths reported in the state till Sunday shows that of the 45 deaths, 73% were male. Two were between 40 and 45, and a 30-year-old pregnant woman was reported dead on Monday. Importantly, 87% of the deceased had underlying health issues like hypertension and diabetes. In at least 4-5 fatalities, the individuals also had long-standing heart problems. The highest deaths have happened in the age-group of 61-70 years (14), although most cases have been reported in the age bracket of 41-50 years.

Commenting on Mumbai’s higher death rate, Dr Daksha Shah, deputy director, health department at BMC, said most deaths have been in the agegroup of 70-80 years. “Besides, we are testing a lot more than many other places. Over 90% of the deaths have been seen in people with underlying conditions,” she said.

State officials said there are states with much higher mortality rates than Maharashtra. According to the Union health ministry, Gujarat and Punjab have a fatality rate of 9%, the highest in the country. Himachal Pradesh has a mortality rate of 8%. However, all these states have way fewer cases than Maharashtra. Gujarat, for instance, had 122 cases till April 5. Punjab had 68 till Sunday.

Infectious diseases expert Dr Tanu Singhal, who consults with Kokilaben Hospital, said at this moment, the deaths were too few to make a generalisation. “There could be a statistical bias here. Maharashtra could be testing much more than other states. Elsewhere, cases of Covid-19, if not tested, could be passing off as viral pneumonia, in which case Maharashtra’s figures would stand out. There is also more awareness and medical facilities in Mumbai, which could mean more diagnosis,” she said.

A state official said the rate of discharge in the state should be considered. “If we are looking at the fatality rate, we should also consider the rate of people getting discharged, which is over 8% of the total positive cases,” said the official.