Guillain-Barré Syndrome: Pune patient count hits 163 but hospitals say ‘worst may be over’

Pune: Five new cases of Guillain-Barré Syndrome were added to Pune's GBS caseload on Monday (Feb 3) by the health department, taking the overall patient count to 163. At least eight of these patients are from neighbouring districts, the department report added.

There were no new deaths reported. Doctors TOI spoke to on Monday said the number of patient discharges now suggests "the worst may be over".

"As many as 16 of our 36 patients have been discharged," said Dr Sameer Jog, consultant intensivist at Deenanath Mangeshkar Hospital, which was among the first hospitals to report a spike in GBS admissions on Jan 20.

"Between Jan 15 and 19, we were getting three to four new GBS cases daily. That dropped to about one a day between Jan 26 and 29. In the last three days, we've not had a single new admission," Dr Jog said, adding that the 16 patients were released from hospital after they showed significant improvement and "better muscle strength".

Overall, the number of patient discharges — across hospitals — increased to 47 on Monday, from 38 just the previous day. But 21 people continue to remain on ventilator support.

Dr Jog said ongoing precautionary measures should stay in place.

"Clean and chlorinated water supplies to all areas of the city should continue," he said.

Dr Sudhir Kothari, neurologist at Poona Hospital, said: "GBS cases have slowed down and the worst seems to be over. Numbers have indeed come down in the last few days," he said.

"Earlier, we were getting at least one case per day on average. Then we started to receive one patient every two to four days. In the last week, we haven't had a GBS admission," Dr Kothari said. Dr Ameet Dravid, infectious disease expert attached to Poona and Noble hospitals, said the surge has been slowing.

"In the first week of the spike, from Jan 15 to 22, we had eight cases. From Jan 22 to 29, there were only two. And we've had none over the last few days. This trend indicates a gradual decline in the graph," he said.

Dr Dravid added: "Most of these patients had gastroenteritis possibly caused by Campylobacter jejuni (as per BioFire tests) around 12-15 days before developing GBS. The first wave of cases now seems to be over, and if this pattern continues, we may see even fewer new cases next week."

An official from Navale Hospital also said a "GBS slowdown" may finally be happening in the city.

"We currently have 12 GBS patients admitted here, with four on ventilator. Most of these patients are from Kirkatwadi and Nanded gaon. Four patients were discharged. We too have not had a single new GBS patient in the last three days, indicating a slowdown," the official said. It's still unclear what caused GBS, an otherwise rare condition, to spike in some parts of the city. Much of the surge still seems limited to newly merged PMC areas, where officials are testing several known sources of water for contamination.

Focus is also on private vendors who used water from RO plants to fill 20-litre cans. Some samples from cans that were sold in GBS-affected areas were found with high levels of bacterial contamination, officials said.