1 in 3 believe the fourth Covid wave in India has already started: Survey

According to a new survey, nearly 34% of Indians surveyed said that the fourth Covid wave in India has already started in April. Around 13% believe it is starting in May and June, 7% in July and August and 4% in September and October. In comparison 29% said that it isn’t likely in 2022 and 4% said that it isn’t likely for the next six months atleast.

The survey conducted by community social media platform LocalCircles received 36,000 responses from 341 districts in the country. “While 1 in 3 in our survey have indicated that the 4th wave has already started, 2 in 3 don’t think as yet”, said Sachin Taparia, founder, LocalCircles. “However, there are parallels with 2021, where a mini surge in February and March was driven by the B.1.1.7 or Beta variant which was followed by the Delta variant which drove the second wave in India. This time it appears to be BA.2.12.1 driving a surge with BA.4 and BA.5 sub variants that are currently growing in South Africa, UK and other countries having the potential to drive a 4th wave in India.”

India’s daily Covid cases rose by 17%, with 2,927 new infections in the last 24 hours. India’s R value (or reproductive value) climbed above 1 last week, with Delhi NCR having a R value of 2.1, implying that every infected person is infecting 2.1 individuals.

In light of the recent rise in cases in several districts, as many as 83% said they want the health ministry to make it mandatory for all districts to report daily Covid cases. Only 12% said no, and 5% didn’t have an opinion.

At the same time, 55% of those surveyed said that they were “highly confident” that experts in India will be able to effectively handle things in the event of a fourth Covid wave. Another 29% said they were “somewhat confident”, 4% had “very little confidence”, and 8% said they were “not confident at all”.

“The need of the hour is for every district to report daily cases, ensure that mask compliance and social distancing is observed and the healthcare infrastructure is readied, which may mean getting some of the equipment received during the second wave serviced and functional”, said Taparia.