While Kerala cases dip, others see surge

Kochi: Kerala’s seven-day average daily growth rate has now come down to 0.22% from 0.6% on January 1. The state’s seven-day average TPR is also below 5%, while on January 1 it was 9.7%. However, even as Kerala saw a decline in daily new cases, many states are witnessing a surge.

The seven-day average TPR of Kerala is now 4 %, while the national TPR is 2.5%. In mid-February, India’s TPR was 1.6%. TPR captures the size of the epidemic and scale of testing and TPR below 5% suggests that the infection is under control.

As on March 10, the confirmed new cases in India was 21,814 with 63% new cases reported from Maharashtra. Though Kerala came second with 2,475 cases, its case burden has seen a decline in the past one month. This is happening even as it continues to do on an average 60,000-65,000 tests per day, with its tests per million per day touching 1,762, even as the national average is a poor 575.

“There are few states that are seeing a surge in cases, but Kerala is definitely not seeing a surge. The number of cases are declining for a month. But, now the political landscape is heating up because of elections and it would be difficult to sustain the declining trend if there is increased Covid-inappropriate behaviour,” said health economist Rijo M John.

India’s average daily new cases have increased by almost 52% in a month. From 11,000 daily new cases in mid-February, now it is 17,000 cases. However, the daily average testing has seen only 10% increase – from 6.5 lakh tests to 7.3 lakh average tests per day.

“Compared to other states, Kerala still has a high caseload. Our susceptible population is still large and the only way ahead is to get vaccinate maximum people at the earliest,” said IMA secretary, Kerala chapter, Dr Gopikumar P.

Since the first Covid case was detected Thrissur on January 30 last year, Kerala’s epidemic has followed a different trajectory from what the rest of India experienced. Though case load continued to be high, the case fatality rate (CFR) was 0.4 %, with a majority of patients being either asymptomatic or having mild symptoms.

“Everyone needs to be extremely careful, ensure social distancing and wear masks. Global experience tells us that the second wave was worse than the first wave and we can’t let that happen,” added Dr VP Paily from Kerala Federation of Obstetricians and Gynaecology.