Third Covid wave may skip Maharashtra, but ‘1.5 times’ upgrade is on

MUMBAI: There is a slim possibility of a mega third Covid wave in Maharashtra, but the state administration will upgrade its Covid infrastructure to ‘1.5 times’ the second wave numbers, said a senior state health official.

“If a district, for instance, had 100 patients during the second wave, we are in the midst of organising beds and infrastructure for 150 patients in that district,’’ said state surveillance officer Dr Pradeep Awate.

The second wave was caused by the Delta variant of Covid-causing SARS-CoV-2 virus, which was first found in Maharashtra at the start of the year. “In the US and UK, the ongoing third wave has been caused by the Delta variant, but many in Maharashtra and India have developed immunity to it. So, the chance of a third wave due to Delta is low,’’ said Dr Awate.

Experts said the third wave would be huge only if a new variant emerges with the high transmissibility of the Delta variant. “However, there is no indication from recent genome surveillance reports that a Delta-like variant will come about,’’ the state government’s chief epidemiologist said.

The second wave is under control, with the test positivity rate in all districts under 5% for the last five weeks. “However, from H1N1 experience, we know it takes a few years for a disease to become endemic. There is no way to predict when exactly the Covid-19 pandemic will be downgraded to endemic level,’’ he said. The state public health department, along with district administration officials, prepared a detailed plan to tackle the possible third wave.