Telangana saw 21,000 excess deaths in first two waves: Study

HYDERABAD: Telangana had 190 percent excess Covid mortality rate during the first and second wave, according to a research study.

It also revealed that the all-India excess mortality was six to seven times higher than official figures.

The research study published in the eminent scientific journal, Science, showed that there were 21,000 excess deaths during 2021 as against 11,000 excess deaths in the year preceding the pandemic in Telangana. This showed that there were 10,000 excess deaths, which stands at 190 per cent.

Hyderabad had reported most number of Covid-19 deaths, only due to serious cases from districts and other states being referred to tertiary care hospitals in the city. However, the study did not mention the figures city-wise. The data provided was only of state-wise figures and national average.

In case of another Telugu-speaking state, Andhra Pradesh, there were 51,000 excess deaths during 2021 in comparison to 36,000 excess deaths during 2018-2019. This in other words mean AP has recorded 140 percent relative excess deaths. However, Andhra Pradesh had less number of excess deaths during the Covid-19 period, compared to Telangana.

Telangana stood third in the country in terms of relative excess deaths, below Gujarat (230 per cent) and Madhya Pradesh (215 per cent).

The researchers said AP had high coverage of expected rural deaths in facilities. The major increase in number of deaths during April-May 2021 was for unknown cause, followed by non-tuberculosis respiratory conditions, heart disease and other chronic disease.

“Our study finds that Indian Covid-19 deaths are substantially greater than estimated from official reports. If our findings are confirmed, this may require substantial upward revision of WHO’s estimates of cumulative global Covid mortality, which as of January 1, 2022, stood at 5.4 million,” the researchers said.

The research team was drawn from University of Toronto, Centre For Voting Opinions and Trends in Election Research, IIM Ahmedabad, Development Data Lab and Dartmouth College. The team comprised Prabhat, Yashwant, Chinmay, Wilson, Aditi Bhowmick, Sankalp, Paul, Sze Hang, Leslie, Hellen and Patrick.

Stating that the analysis of increase in overall mortality may better capture the diverse diseases affected by Covid-19 infection, the researchers said delays in death registration or a backlog of deaths corrected suddenly might create a spurious peak of excess deaths. At all-India level, Covid constituted 29 per cent of deaths from June 2020 to July 2021, corresponding to 3.2 million deaths, of which 2.7 million occurred in April-July 2021, when Covid-19 doubled all-cause mortality, the study said.