Nationwide lockdown delayed first wave peak by 8 weeks: IISER study

Pune: A study by Pune-based Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER) has revealed that the national lockdown, starting March 25, 2020, helped delay the Covid-19 pandemic peak during the first wave by over eight weeks in the city.

Based on the natural epidemic model, the institute found that the first wave could have peaked by mid-July, instead of mid-September in the city, in the absence of a lockdown.

Dr Vidya Mave, one of the authors of the study, said, “The study helped us understand that the lockdown was indeed effective. The natural epidemic model was based on the modelling data by considering a reproductive rate of 1.8 based on the doubling rate from other countries. The delay also helped save many lives, we could learn about pandemic management from other countries, give time to the authorities to manage the population and also arrange for quarantine facilities.”

The study also found that the new Covid-19 patients maintained a steady rise before and during the nationwide lockdown, with an average of 5% weekly rise in infections during the lockdown. The trajectory levelled off during the regional lockdown, with a 7% drop in new infections.

The study, published in Nature.com on June 22, 2022, focused on the impact of both national and regional lockdowns in the Pune Metropolitan Region (PMR) during multiple waves. Nature.com is an international journal publishing peer-reviewed research.

The state had reported its first confirmed case of Covid-19 in a Pune couple on March 9, 2020. The study found that from February 1 to September 15, 2020, a total of 64,526 people were found positive in PMC limits — 36,180 (56%) men and 9,414 (15%) children. Among children, the risk of contracting Covid-19 was higher among the ages of 5-18 years, the study revealed.

It showed that during the nationwide lockdown, high population density areas had the lowest new infection rate.