Dr Samiran Panda: Next 4 to 6 weeks crucial to understand transmission dynamics

Pune: The additional director-general of Indian Council of Medical Research, Dr Samiran Panda, told TOI on Saturday that the next four to six weeks would be crucial to understand the disease transmission dynamics better, against the backdrop of the current uptick in Covid-19 cases.

“The spike in certain districts in some states was observed from mid-June and we have to keep a close watch on them to understand the contributory factors. So far, the disease severity is not high and there is no indication of a fourth wave. The hospitalisation rate is not high, either,” he said.

While Maharashtra and Kerala have 60% of total active cases in India, the Centre has expressed concern over rapidly increasing infections in states like Delhi, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana. The spike in daily cases over the last fortnight is more than double in some states, according to reports.

Dr Panda said rise in cases in certain clusters was expected because of local-level determinants even as India was currently in the endemic phase. The top scientist of Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) said it was important to ensure that immunocompromised individuals and those with comorbidities did not contract the virus and the current goal of all states should be to protect such vulnerable groups.

He said if cases would rise in July or if there would be a fourth wave would hinge on the emergence of any new variants. “The mathematical models may have cited such forecasts, but practically it would have to be seen after studying the present transmission dynamics in depth,” he said.

Dr Panda iterated the importance of masks as a protective tool not just against Covid, but for all other respiratory infections and even air pollution-related issues.

Epidemiologist Chandrakant Lahariya told TOI that it was time that one stopped thinking in terms of binaries of wave and no wave, and pandemic and endemic. “Virus is now with us and it is very likely that cases would rise and fall. Instead of focusing on daily new cases and test positivity rate, we should focus on high-risk individuals in settings where cases are rising and there is a need for such a vulnerable population to voluntarily use face masks,” he said.

Senior advisor at Ashoka University and former senior deputy director-general and former head of epidemiology department at ICMR Dr Lalit Kant told TOI, “If the current spread is due to Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 sub- lineage like BA4 and/or BA5, it is unlikely that a wave-like condition would be produced, as a large proportion of the population has been vaccinated.”